The honest answer is I do not know but I do not think it is any of the seven things I have mentioned. But of course, I have to at least take a guess, right? The most challenging market to make this prediction is here in the US where cards, cards, cards continue to dominate and IMO will for my lifetime. Note - I have put my money where my mouth is, I own Stripe, Adyen, Fiserv, Visa, MasterCard, Block, Google, Apple, etc. In other markets like Asia, Latam, and Europe, there have been massive transformations such as Alipay, UPI, PIX and Open Banking.
AI itself is a tool so the question is what truly transformational change can it be utilized for and when I say truly transformational I am not talking about a tenth of a percent uptick in authorization optimizations or fraud reduction.
OK, since success in payments, for all parties, is about risk management, I would say that the winning opportunity to really change the paradigm would be for the industry to fully embrace PassKey/Fido authentication across all channels. Combining this with full Network tokenization that is already nearly fully deployed would truly be a game changer. Authentication rates would skyrocket, fraud would be mostly eliminated, the Interchange premium for CNP "could" be eliminated albeit that might require Durbin like legislation, and many associated costs for Merchants, Issuers and Acquirers could disappear.
Thoughts?